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Philippine Army vs Loyola — PFL 2020

Philippine Army
Philippine Army
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Loyola
Loyola
5/19/2024PFLPFL · Round 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Philippine Army26%
×Draw19%
Loyola55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippine Army
1.79
Loyola
2.60

Loyola creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Philippine Army
0.78
Loyola
1.38

allows per match

Philippine Army
3.83
Loyola
2.81

finishing

Philippine Army+0.00on par
Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippine Army ↓

Loyola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Philippine Army or draw
45%
Philippine Army or Loyola
81%
Draw or Loyola
74%

Winning margin

Philippine Army wins by 2+
13%
Loyola wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Philippine Army 1+ goals
83%
Philippine Army 2+ goals
53%
Philippine Army 3+ goals
26%
Loyola 1+ goals
92%
Loyola 2+ goals
73%
Loyola 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Philippine Army (draw refunded)
32%
Loyola (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippine Army at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.83 · 18 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippine Army attack 0.78 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Loyola attack 1.38 + Philippine Army defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Philippine Army scores more
26%
level
19%
Loyola scores more
55%

Loyola at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Loyola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philippine Army vs Loyola

Loyola beat Philippine Army 4-3 in PFL on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.