Philippine Army 1–3 Ceres: Result & Stats | PFL

Philippine Army

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Ceres

4/14/2024

PFL · Round 2Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Philippine Army4%

×Draw7%

Ceres88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philippine ArmyExpected goals in this matchCeres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

4.26

Philippine Army

0.96

Ceres

4.26

Ceres creates 344% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

0.78

creates per match

4.69

3.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Philippine Army

0.78

Ceres

4.69

allows per match

Philippine Army

3.83

Ceres

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippine Army+0.00on par

Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippine Army ↓

Ceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Philippine Army or draw

12%

Philippine Army or Ceres

93%

Draw or Ceres

96%

Winning margin

Philippine Army wins by 2+

1%

Ceres wins by 2+

75%

Team goals

Philippine Army 1+ goals

62%

Philippine Army 2+ goals

25%

Philippine Army 3+ goals

7%

Ceres 1+ goals

98%

Ceres 2+ goals

91%

Ceres 3+ goals

76%

Draw no bet

Philippine Army (draw refunded)

5%

Ceres (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippine Army at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.83 · 18 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippine Army attack 0.78 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ceres attack 4.69 + Philippine Army defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 4.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Philippine Army scores more

4%

level

7%

Ceres scores more

88%

Ceres at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff