Philippine Air Force 1–4 Ceres: Result & Stats

Philippine Air Force

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Ceres

4/21/2024

PFL · Round 3Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Philippine Air Force8%

×Draw11%

Ceres82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philippine Air ForceExpected goals in this matchCeres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.75

Philippine Air Force

1.17

Ceres

3.75

Ceres creates 221% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.20

creates per match

4.69

2.80

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Philippine Air Force

1.20

Ceres

4.69

allows per match

Philippine Air Force

2.80

Ceres

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippine Air Force+0.00on par

Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippine Air Force ↓

Ceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Philippine Air Force or draw

18%

Philippine Air Force or Ceres

89%

Draw or Ceres

92%

Winning margin

Philippine Air Force wins by 2+

3%

Ceres wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Philippine Air Force 1+ goals

69%

Philippine Air Force 2+ goals

33%

Philippine Air Force 3+ goals

11%

Ceres 1+ goals

97%

Ceres 2+ goals

88%

Ceres 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Philippine Air Force (draw refunded)

9%

Ceres (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippine Air Force at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippine Air Force attack 1.20 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ceres attack 4.69 + Philippine Air Force defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Philippine Air Force scores more

8%

level

11%

Ceres scores more

82%

Ceres at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff