Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Philadelphia Union vs Indy Eleven — US Open Cup 2018

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Unionadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
5/7/2025US Open CupUS Open Cup · Round of 32Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Philadelphia Union71%
×Draw19%
Indy Eleven10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
2.00
Indy Eleven
0.58

Philadelphia Union creates 245% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
3.00
Indy Eleven
0.50

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
0.67
Indy Eleven
1.00

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
90%
Philadelphia Union or Indy Eleven
81%
Draw or Indy Eleven
29%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
45%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
86%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
59%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
32%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
44%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
12%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
88%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 3.00 + Indy Eleven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Indy Eleven attack 0.50 + Philadelphia Union defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
71%
level
19%
Indy Eleven scores more
10%

Philadelphia Union at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union vs Indy Eleven

Philadelphia Union and Indy Eleven drew 1-1 in US Open Cup on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Subaru Park.