Philadelphia Union vs Club America — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Philadelphia Union49%
Club America25%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Philadelphia Union creates 50% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Philadelphia Union ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Philadelphia Union at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches
Club America away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Philadelphia Union attack 2.00 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56
Club America attack 1.53 + Philadelphia Union defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Philadelphia Union at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Los Angeles FC
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Nashville SC
Cruz Azul
FC Cincinnati
Seattle SoundersClub America
Los Angeles GalaxyPhiladelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
Vancouver Whitecaps
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Inter Miami
Sporting San Miguelito
LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS Cartagines
Forge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Philadelphia Union host Club America on Thursday, 16 September 2021 at 01:00. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
CONCACAF Champions League: Philadelphia Union 0–2 Club America
Club America beat Philadelphia Union 2-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on September 16, 2021.
Goals: N. Benedetti (79'), H. Martín (90+3').
The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.