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Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
8/22/2021Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 27Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Philadelphia Union46%
×Draw24%
CF Montreal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
1.62
CF Montreal
1.25

Philadelphia Union creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
1.48
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
1.11
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.19scores more
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
70%
Philadelphia Union or CF Montreal
76%
Draw or CF Montreal
54%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
24%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
80%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
48%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
22%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
71%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
36%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
61%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.48 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
46%
level
24%
CF Montreal scores more
30%

Philadelphia Union at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Philadelphia Union 1–1 CF Montreal

Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.