Philadelphia Union 3–0 Buducnost Podgorica

Philadelphia Union

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buducnost Podgorica

1/29/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Philadelphia Union49%

×Draw23%

Buducnost Podgorica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia UnionExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.33

Philadelphia Union

1.81

Buducnost Podgorica

1.33

Philadelphia Union creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Philadelphia Union

1.83

Buducnost Podgorica

1.00

allows per match

Philadelphia Union

1.67

Buducnost Podgorica

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw

72%

Philadelphia Union or Buducnost Podgorica

77%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

51%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

27%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

84%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

54%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

27%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

74%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

38%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

63%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.83 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more

49%

level

23%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

28%

Philadelphia Union at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff