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Philadelphia Union II vs Toronto II — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Toronto II
Toronto II
9/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 50Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Philadelphia Union II50%
×Draw21%
Toronto II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
2.08
Toronto II
1.56

Philadelphia Union II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Toronto II
1.42

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Toronto II
2.53

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Toronto II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Toronto II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
71%
Philadelphia Union II or Toronto II
79%
Draw or Toronto II
50%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
29%
Toronto II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
87%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
61%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
34%
Toronto II 1+ goals
79%
Toronto II 2+ goals
46%
Toronto II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
63%
Toronto II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Toronto II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Toronto II defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.08

Toronto II attack 1.42 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
50%
level
21%
Toronto II scores more
29%

Philadelphia Union II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs Toronto II

Philadelphia Union II beat Toronto II 4-0 in USL Championship on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania).