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Philadelphia Union II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
10/14/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 57Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II35%
×Draw25%
Tampa Bay Rowdies40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 135 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.33

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.19

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
60%
Philadelphia Union II or Tampa Bay Rowdies
75%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
65%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
16%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
76%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
41%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
17%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
78%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
45%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
47%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
35%
level
25%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
40%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philadelphia Union II 1 – 0 Tampa Bay Rowdies

Philadelphia Union II beat Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 in USL Championship on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania).