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Philadelphia Union II vs Rochester Rhinos — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rochester Rhinos
Rochester Rhinos
9/4/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 24Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Philadelphia Union II48%
×Draw23%
Rochester Rhinos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.86
Rochester Rhinos
1.39

Philadelphia Union II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 11 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
Rochester Rhinos
1.36

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
Rochester Rhinos
1.73

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Rochester Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Rochester Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
71%
Philadelphia Union II or Rochester Rhinos
77%
Draw or Rochester Rhinos
52%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
27%
Rochester Rhinos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
84%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
55%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
28%
Rochester Rhinos 1+ goals
75%
Rochester Rhinos 2+ goals
40%
Rochester Rhinos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
63%
Rochester Rhinos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Rochester Rhinos away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Rochester Rhinos defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rochester Rhinos attack 1.36 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
48%
level
23%
Rochester Rhinos scores more
29%

Philadelphia Union II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs Rochester Rhinos

Rochester Rhinos beat Philadelphia Union II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.