Philadelphia Union II 2–2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Philadelphia Union II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

3/30/2019

USL Championship · Round 7Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II35%

×Draw25%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia Union IIExpected goals in this matchPittsburgh Riverhounds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.52

Philadelphia Union II

1.38

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.52

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 133 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

1.71

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.64

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.32

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.71

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw

59%

Philadelphia Union II or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

75%

Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

65%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

16%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

75%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

40%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

16%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

78%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

45%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

46%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more

35%

level

25%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

41%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff