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Philadelphia Union II vs New England II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
New England II
New England II
6/26/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 20Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Philadelphia Union II51%
×Draw21%
New England II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
2.05
New England II
1.48

Philadelphia Union II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 47 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
New England II
1.53

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
New England II
2.11

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
New England II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

New England II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
72%
Philadelphia Union II or New England II
79%
Draw or New England II
49%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
29%
New England II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
87%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
61%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
33%
New England II 1+ goals
77%
New England II 2+ goals
43%
New England II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
64%
New England II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

New England II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.11 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + New England II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

New England II attack 1.53 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
51%
level
21%
New England II scores more
28%

Philadelphia Union II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Philadelphia Union II 2–2 New England II

Philadelphia Union II and New England II drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Subaru Park.