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Philadelphia Union II vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Louisville City
Louisville City
5/26/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II32%
×Draw24%
Louisville City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.38
Louisville City
1.65

Louisville City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 130 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
56%
Philadelphia Union II or Louisville City
76%
Draw or Louisville City
68%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
14%
Louisville City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
75%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
40%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
16%
Louisville City 1+ goals
81%
Louisville City 2+ goals
49%
Louisville City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
42%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
32%
level
24%
Louisville City scores more
44%

Louisville City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Philadelphia Union II 2–2 Louisville City

Philadelphia Union II and Louisville City drew 2-2 in USL Championship on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).