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Philadelphia Union II vs Loudoun United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Loudoun United
Loudoun United
1/30/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Philadelphia Union II47%
×Draw21%
Loudoun United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
2.17
Loudoun United
1.77

Philadelphia Union II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.33
Loudoun United
1.20

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.33
Loudoun United
2.00

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Loudoun United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Loudoun United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
68%
Philadelphia Union II or Loudoun United
79%
Draw or Loudoun United
53%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
28%
Loudoun United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
89%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
64%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
36%
Loudoun United 1+ goals
83%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
53%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
60%
Loudoun United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Loudoun United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.33 + Loudoun United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Loudoun United attack 1.20 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
47%
level
21%
Loudoun United scores more
32%

Philadelphia Union II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Philadelphia Union II 2–2 Loudoun United

Philadelphia Union II and Loudoun United drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 30, 2026.