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Philadelphia Union II vs Loudoun United — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Loudoun United
Loudoun United
9/18/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 52Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II49%
×Draw23%
Loudoun United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.83
Loudoun United
1.33

Philadelphia Union II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 115 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Loudoun United
0.95

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Loudoun United
2.03

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Loudoun United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Loudoun United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
72%
Philadelphia Union II or Loudoun United
77%
Draw or Loudoun United
51%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
27%
Loudoun United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
84%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
54%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
28%
Loudoun United 1+ goals
74%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
38%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
64%
Loudoun United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Loudoun United away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.03 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Loudoun United defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.83

Loudoun United attack 0.95 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
49%
level
23%
Loudoun United scores more
28%

Philadelphia Union II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Philadelphia Union II 5–2 Loudoun United

Philadelphia Union II beat Loudoun United 5-2 in USL Championship on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).