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Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC — League #301 2026

Al Nasr
Al Nasr
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
Álvaro Negredo 90+7', 59'
S. Tagliabúe 83'
Ahmed Almehrzi 44'
10/26/2018League #301League #301 · Round 7Maktoum Bin Rashid al Maktoum Stadium (Al-Shabab Stadium) (Dubayy (Dubai))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Nasr37%
×Draw24%
Al Wahda FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasr
1.48
Al Wahda FC
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

creates per match

Al Nasr
1.69
Al Wahda FC
1.81

allows per match

Al Nasr
1.20
Al Wahda FC
1.27

finishing

Al Nasr+0.00on par
Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasr ↓

Al Wahda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Nasr or draw
62%
Al Nasr or Al Wahda FC
76%
Draw or Al Wahda FC
63%

Winning margin

Al Nasr wins by 2+
18%
Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Nasr 1+ goals
77%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
43%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
19%
Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
78%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
44%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Nasr (draw refunded)
49%
Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasr at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasr attack 1.69 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Wahda FC attack 1.81 + Al Nasr defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Nasr scores more
37%
level
24%
Al Wahda FC scores more
38%

Al Wahda FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Ahmed Almehrzi
53'
Mohamed Al Akbari← Amir Mubarak Ghanim
59'
Álvaro Negredo↳ Marquinhos Gabriel
67'
Habib Fardan Abdualla← Samuel
78'
Mohammed Helal← Mohammad Abdulbasit
83'
S. Tagliabúe
87'
Nasser Abdulhadi← Ismaeil Matar
88'
Jassim Al Balooshi← Tariq Ahmed Hassan
90+4'
Y. Alghassani← Leonardo
90+7'
Álvaro Negredo↳ Mohammed Ali Ayed

Al Nasr 2 – 2 Al Wahda FC

Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC drew 2-2 in League #301 on October 26, 2018.

Goals: Ahmed Almehrzi (44'), Álvaro Negredo (59', 90+7'), S. Tagliabúe (83').

The match was played at Maktoum Bin Rashid al Maktoum Stadium (Al-Shabab Stadium) (Dubayy (Dubai)).