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Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC — League #301 2026

Al Nasr
Al Nasr
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
C. Doumbia 90'
Z. Al Zaabi 3'
C. Benteke 45'
O. M. Khribin 18'
4/4/2026League #301League #301 · Round 21Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Nasr40%
×Draw25%
Al Wahda FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasr
1.46
Al Wahda FC
1.33

Al Nasr creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Nasr
1.67
Al Wahda FC
1.57

allows per match

Al Nasr
1.10
Al Wahda FC
1.25

finishing

Al Nasr+0.00on par
Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasr ↓

Al Wahda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Nasr or draw
66%
Al Nasr or Al Wahda FC
75%
Draw or Al Wahda FC
60%

Winning margin

Al Nasr wins by 2+
19%
Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Nasr 1+ goals
77%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
43%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
18%
Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
74%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
38%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Nasr (draw refunded)
54%
Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasr at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasr attack 1.67 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Wahda FC attack 1.57 + Al Nasr defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Nasr scores more
40%
level
25%
Al Wahda FC scores more
34%

Al Nasr at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
O. M. KhribinAl Wahda FCAl Wahda FC · M
8.2

Match Events

3'
Z. Al Zaabi↳ Glauber
5'
Zayed SultanGoal confirmed
18'
O. M. Khribin↳ Guga
45+8'
Moussa Ndiaye
45+6'
Ramón Miérez
45'
C. Benteke↳ O. M. Khribin
55'
M. Ghaedi← K. Agudelo
55'
C. Doumbia← R. Mierez
64'
Favour Inyeka Ogbu Ogbu
67'
F. Kruspzky← B. Diarra
68'
Caio Canedo← D. Tadic
72'
M. Azarkan← M. Ndiaye
85'
S. Saatci← M. Hoibraaten
89'
Favour Inyeka Ogbu Ogbu
89'
Favour Inyeka Ogbu Ogbu
90+5'
Cheickna DoumbiaPenalty cancelled
90+8'
M. Dehghan← C. Benteke
90+1'
G. Alvarez← O. M. Khribin
90'
C. Doumbia↳ M. Ghaedi

Possession

55%Al

Shots

23Al

Pass accuracy

52%Al

Statistics

AlAl
Overview
55%Possession45%
23Total Shots8
7Corners2
14Fouls10
Shots
23Total Shots8
8On Target5
8Off Target3
7Blocked0
11Inside Box7
12Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
435Total Passes355
363Accurate Passes274
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC

Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC drew 2-2 in League #301 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Z. Al Zaabi (3'), O. M. Khribin (18'), C. Benteke (45'), C. Doumbia (90').

Al Nasr controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Al Maktoum Stadium in Dubai.