PFF Developmental Club 2–1 Mendiola: Result & Stats

PFF Developmental Club

FT

2 – 1

Mendiola

11/12/2024

PFL · Round 3Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PFF Developmental Club55%

×Draw19%

Mendiola26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFF Developmental ClubExpected goals in this matchMendiola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.77

PFF Developmental Club

2.59

Mendiola

1.77

PFF Developmental Club creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 44 away

1.50

creates per match

1.05

2.50

allows per match

3.68

creates per match

PFF Developmental Club

1.50

Mendiola

1.05

allows per match

PFF Developmental Club

2.50

Mendiola

3.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par

Mendiola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFF Developmental Club ↓

Mendiola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

PFF Developmental Club or draw

74%

PFF Developmental Club or Mendiola

81%

Draw or Mendiola

45%

Winning margin

PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+

35%

Mendiola wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals

92%

PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals

73%

PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals

47%

Mendiola 1+ goals

83%

Mendiola 2+ goals

53%

Mendiola 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)

68%

Mendiola (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFF Developmental Club at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Mendiola away — creates 1.05, concedes 3.68 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFF Developmental Club attack 1.50 + Mendiola defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 2.59

Mendiola attack 1.05 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

PFF Developmental Club scores more

55%

level

19%

Mendiola scores more

26%

PFF Developmental Club at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "PFF Developmental Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff