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PFF Developmental Club vs Maharlika — PFL 2020

PFF Developmental Club
PFF Developmental Club
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Maharlika
Maharlika
4/12/2025PFLPFL · Round 9Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PFF Developmental Club41%
×Draw22%
Maharlika37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFF Developmental Club
1.91
Maharlika
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 41 away

creates per match

PFF Developmental Club
1.50
Maharlika
1.12

allows per match

PFF Developmental Club
2.50
Maharlika
2.32

finishing

PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par
Maharlika+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFF Developmental Club ↓

Maharlika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

PFF Developmental Club or draw
63%
PFF Developmental Club or Maharlika
78%
Draw or Maharlika
59%

Winning margin

PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+
22%
Maharlika wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals
85%
PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals
57%
PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals
30%
Maharlika 1+ goals
84%
Maharlika 2+ goals
54%
Maharlika 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)
53%
Maharlika (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFF Developmental Club at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Maharlika away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFF Developmental Club attack 1.50 + Maharlika defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.91

Maharlika attack 1.12 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PFF Developmental Club scores more
41%
level
22%
Maharlika scores more
37%

PFF Developmental Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PFF Developmental Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PFF Developmental Club vs Maharlika

Maharlika beat PFF Developmental Club 2-1 in PFL on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Biñan Football Stadium in Biñan.