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Pfeddersheim vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
8/2/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 2Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pfeddersheim36%
×Draw22%
Wormatia Worms43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.77
Wormatia Worms
1.94

Wormatia Worms creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
57%
Pfeddersheim or Wormatia Worms
78%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
64%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
18%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
83%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
53%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
26%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
86%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
58%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
46%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
36%
level
22%
Wormatia Worms scores more
43%

Wormatia Worms at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Pfeddersheim 1–1 Wormatia Worms

Pfeddersheim and Wormatia Worms drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.