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Pfeddersheim vs Schott Mainz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
10/1/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Pfeddersheim22%
×Draw20%
Schott Mainz58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.33
Schott Mainz
2.26

Schott Mainz creates 70% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Schott Mainz
2.63

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Schott Mainz
0.85

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
42%
Pfeddersheim or Schott Mainz
80%
Draw or Schott Mainz
78%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
9%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
74%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
38%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
15%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
89%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
66%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
27%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.33

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
22%
level
20%
Schott Mainz scores more
58%

Schott Mainz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Schott Mainz

Schott Mainz beat Pfeddersheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.