Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pfeddersheim vs Quierschied — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Quierschied
Quierschied
10/28/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pfeddersheim56%
×Draw20%
Quierschied23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
2.20
Quierschied
1.36

Pfeddersheim creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Quierschied
0.84

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Quierschied
2.58

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Quierschied+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Quierschied →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
77%
Pfeddersheim or Quierschied
80%
Draw or Quierschied
44%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
34%
Quierschied wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
89%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
64%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
37%
Quierschied 1+ goals
74%
Quierschied 2+ goals
39%
Quierschied 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
71%
Quierschied (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Quierschied away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Quierschied defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.20

Quierschied attack 0.84 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
56%
level
20%
Quierschied scores more
23%

Pfeddersheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pfeddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Pfeddersheim 4–0 Quierschied

Pfeddersheim beat Quierschied 4-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.