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Pfeddersheim vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
11/4/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pfeddersheim31%
×Draw21%
Kaiserslautern II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.72
Kaiserslautern II
2.20

Kaiserslautern II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 79 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
51%
Pfeddersheim or Kaiserslautern II
79%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
69%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
15%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
82%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
51%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
25%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
89%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
64%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
39%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
31%
level
21%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
49%

Kaiserslautern II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Kaiserslautern II

Kaiserslautern II beat Pfeddersheim 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.