Pfeddersheim 1–5 FV Engers 07: Result & Stats

Pfeddersheim

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 5

FV Engers 07

8/20/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Worms-Pfeddersheim Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pfeddersheim36%

×Draw22%

FV Engers 0742%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PfeddersheimExpected goals in this matchFV Engers 07

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.92

Pfeddersheim

1.77

FV Engers 07

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

1.82

creates per match

1.96

1.89

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Pfeddersheim

1.82

FV Engers 07

1.96

allows per match

Pfeddersheim

1.89

FV Engers 07

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

FV Engers 07 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw

58%

Pfeddersheim or FV Engers 07

78%

Draw or FV Engers 07

64%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+

18%

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals

83%

Pfeddersheim 2+ goals

53%

Pfeddersheim 3+ goals

26%

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

85%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

57%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)

46%

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more

36%

level

22%

FV Engers 07 scores more

42%

FV Engers 07 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff