Pfeddersheim 3–1 Eisbachtal: Result & Stats

Pfeddersheim

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eisbachtal

3/5/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pfeddersheim49%

×Draw21%

Eisbachtal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PfeddersheimExpected goals in this matchEisbachtal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.69

Pfeddersheim

2.17

Eisbachtal

1.69

Pfeddersheim creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

1.82

creates per match

1.50

1.89

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Pfeddersheim

1.82

Eisbachtal

1.50

allows per match

Pfeddersheim

1.89

Eisbachtal

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Eisbachtal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Eisbachtal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw

70%

Pfeddersheim or Eisbachtal

79%

Draw or Eisbachtal

51%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+

29%

Eisbachtal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals

89%

Pfeddersheim 2+ goals

64%

Pfeddersheim 3+ goals

36%

Eisbachtal 1+ goals

82%

Eisbachtal 2+ goals

50%

Eisbachtal 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)

62%

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Eisbachtal away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Eisbachtal defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Eisbachtal attack 1.50 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more

49%

level

21%

Eisbachtal scores more

30%

Pfeddersheim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pfeddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff