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Pfeddersheim vs Eintracht Trier — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
11/19/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pfeddersheim24%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Trier56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.46
Eintracht Trier
2.30

Eintracht Trier creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Eintracht Trier
2.71

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Eintracht Trier
1.09

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Eintracht Trier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
44%
Pfeddersheim or Eintracht Trier
80%
Draw or Eintracht Trier
76%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
11%
Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
77%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
43%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
18%
Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
90%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
67%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
30%
Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
24%
level
20%
Eintracht Trier scores more
56%

Eintracht Trier at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Pfeddersheim 2–5 Eintracht Trier

Eintracht Trier beat Pfeddersheim 5-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.