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Pfeddersheim vs Dudenhofen — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dudenhofen
Dudenhofen
5/19/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 11Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pfeddersheim34%
×Draw23%
Dudenhofen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.58
Dudenhofen
1.83

Dudenhofen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
2.50
Dudenhofen
2.17

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.50
Dudenhofen
0.67

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Dudenhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Dudenhofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
56%
Pfeddersheim or Dudenhofen
77%
Draw or Dudenhofen
66%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
16%
Dudenhofen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
79%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
47%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
21%
Dudenhofen 1+ goals
84%
Dudenhofen 2+ goals
54%
Dudenhofen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
43%
Dudenhofen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Dudenhofen away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 2.50 + Dudenhofen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dudenhofen attack 2.17 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
34%
level
23%
Dudenhofen scores more
44%

Dudenhofen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Dudenhofen

Pfeddersheim and Dudenhofen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.