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Pfeddersheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
3 – 4
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
5/5/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 9Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pfeddersheim45%
×Draw19%
Arminia Ludwigshafen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
2.50
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.25

Pfeddersheim creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
2.50
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3.00

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.50
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.50

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
64%
Pfeddersheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen
81%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
55%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
27%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
92%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
71%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
45%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
89%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
65%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
55%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 2.50 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 3.00 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
45%
level
19%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
36%

Pfeddersheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pfeddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Pfeddersheim 4-3 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.