PFC Sochi 2–0 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit 2

11/10/2018

First League · Round 21Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

PFC Sochi59%

×Draw24%

Zenit 217%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.80

PFC Sochi

1.70

Zenit 2

0.80

PFC Sochi creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.84

creates per match

0.75

0.86

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.84

Zenit 2

0.75

allows per match

PFC Sochi

0.86

Zenit 2

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

83%

PFC Sochi or Zenit 2

76%

Draw or Zenit 2

41%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

33%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

82%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

51%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

24%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

55%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

19%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

77%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Zenit 2 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Zenit 2 attack 0.75 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

59%

level

24%

Zenit 2 scores more

17%

PFC Sochi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff