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PFC Sochi vs Ural — Premier League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ural
Ural
8/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi51%
×Draw25%
Ural24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.65
Ural
1.06

PFC Sochi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.69
Ural
0.89

allows per match

PFC Sochi
1.24
Ural
1.60

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
76%
PFC Sochi or Ural
75%
Draw or Ural
49%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
27%
Ural wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
81%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
49%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
23%
Ural 1+ goals
65%
Ural 2+ goals
29%
Ural 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
68%
Ural (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Ural away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Ural defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ural attack 0.89 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
51%
level
25%
Ural scores more
24%

PFC Sochi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFC Sochi 0 – 0 Ural

PFC Sochi and Ural drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.