PFC Sochi 0–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

8/18/2018

First League · Round 7Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PFC Sochi45%

×Draw27%

Nizhny Novgorod28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

PFC Sochi

1.36

Nizhny Novgorod

1.02

PFC Sochi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

1.84

creates per match

1.19

0.86

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.84

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

PFC Sochi

0.86

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

72%

PFC Sochi or Nizhny Novgorod

73%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

55%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

21%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

74%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

39%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

16%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

64%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

27%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

61%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

45%

level

27%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

28%

PFC Sochi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff