Nizhny Novgorod 2–1 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Sochi

3/7/2026

Premier League · Round 20Sovcombank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod39%

×Draw26%

FC Sochi35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod

1.40

FC Sochi

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 89 away

1.15

creates per match

1.08

1.53

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.15

FC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.53

FC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

65%

Nizhny Novgorod or FC Sochi

74%

Draw or FC Sochi

61%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

18%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

41%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

17%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

73%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

38%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

53%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + FC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Sochi attack 1.08 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

39%

level

26%

FC Sochi scores more

35%

Nizhny Novgorod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff