PFC Sochi 1–3 Lokomotiv Moscow: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Moscow

4/7/2021

Cup · Quarter-finalsOlimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

PFC Sochi26%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Moscow53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.10

PFC Sochi

1.44

Lokomotiv Moscow

2.10

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.42

creates per match

1.95

2.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.42

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.95

allows per match

PFC Sochi

2.25

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

47%

PFC Sochi or Lokomotiv Moscow

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow

74%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

12%

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

76%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

42%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

18%

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

88%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

62%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

33%

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.42 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.95 + PFC Sochi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

26%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

53%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff