FC Sochi 2–4 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Lokomotiv

F. Kamano 88'

M. Kramaric 25'

D. Vorobyev 68' (pen)

A. Rudenko 34', 29'

A. Batrakov 7'

12/7/2025

Premier League · Round 18Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Sochi42%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.38

FC Sochi

1.56

Lokomotiv

1.38

FC Sochi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.52

1.24

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.69

Lokomotiv

1.52

allows per match

FC Sochi

1.24

Lokomotiv

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

66%

FC Sochi or Lokomotiv

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv

58%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

21%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

79%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

46%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

21%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

75%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

40%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

55%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.69 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + FC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Sochi scores more

42%

level

25%

Lokomotiv scores more

34%

FC Sochi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Rudenko

Lokomotiv · F

8.9

Match Events

7'

A. Batrakov↳ N. Komlichenko

25'

M. Kramaric↳ I. Saavedra

29'

A. Rudenko

31'

Nikolay Komlichenko

34'

A. Rudenko↳ A. Batrakov

46'

R. Bart← M. Kramaric

46'

D. Vorobyev← N. Komlichenko

56'

K. Zaika← S. Volkov

56'

A. Osipov← D. Vasiljev

62'

Z. Bakaev← D. Prutsev

66'

César MontesPenalty confirmed

68'

D. VorobyevPenalty

69'

S. Pinyaev← A. Rudenko

72'

Z. Fedorov← A. Kovalenko

85'

F. Kamano← A. Zinkovskiy

86'

E. Pogostnov← C. Montes

86'

A. Timofeev← D. Barinov

88'

F. Kamano↳ M. Ignatov

90'

Mikhail Ignatov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCLokomotiv

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots16

6Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target10

3Off Target5

2Blocked1

5Inside Box13

4Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

452Total Passes476

382Accurate Passes402

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1