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PFC Sochi vs Leningradets — Friendlies Clubs 2020

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leningradets
Leningradets
T. Margasov 82', 50'
Miguel 71'
I. Ignatjev 5'
Levin 32'
7/6/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PFC Sochi57%
×Draw21%
Leningradets22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
2.08
Leningradets
1.23

PFC Sochi creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
2.15
Leningradets
0.71

allows per match

PFC Sochi
1.75
Leningradets
2.00

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
78%
PFC Sochi or Leningradets
79%
Draw or Leningradets
43%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
34%
Leningradets wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
87%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
61%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
34%
Leningradets 1+ goals
71%
Leningradets 2+ goals
35%
Leningradets 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
72%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Leningradets away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 2.15 + Leningradets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Leningradets attack 0.71 + PFC Sochi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
57%
level
21%
Leningradets scores more
22%

PFC Sochi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
I. Ignatjev
32'
Levin
50'
T. Margasov
71'
Miguel
82'
T. Margasov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: PFC Sochi 4–1 Leningradets

PFC Sochi beat Leningradets 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2023.

Goals: I. Ignatjev (5'), Levin (32'), T. Margasov (50', 82'), Miguel (71').

The match was played at Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1 in Sochi.