PFC Sochi 2–3 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

2 – 3

Krasnodar 2

6/21/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PFC Sochi55%

×Draw19%

Krasnodar 226%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.66

PFC Sochi

2.47

Krasnodar 2

1.66

PFC Sochi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

1.60

1.71

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

PFC Sochi

2.14

Krasnodar 2

1.60

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.71

Krasnodar 2

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

74%

PFC Sochi or Krasnodar 2

81%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

45%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

35%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

91%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

70%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

44%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

81%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

49%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

68%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 2.14 + Krasnodar 2 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.47

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.60 + PFC Sochi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

55%

level

19%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

26%

PFC Sochi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff