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PFC Sochi vs Khimki — First League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
7/29/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion FGUP Yugsport (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PFC Sochi46%
×Draw26%
Khimki28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.51
Khimki
1.13

PFC Sochi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.84
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

PFC Sochi
0.86
Khimki
1.18

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
72%
PFC Sochi or Khimki
74%
Draw or Khimki
54%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
23%
Khimki wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
78%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
44%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
19%
Khimki 1+ goals
68%
Khimki 2+ goals
31%
Khimki 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
62%
Khimki (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.51

Khimki attack 1.39 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
46%
level
26%
Khimki scores more
28%

PFC Sochi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: PFC Sochi 3–2 Khimki

PFC Sochi beat Khimki 3-2 in First League on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion FGUP Yugsport (Sochi).