Khimki 0–2 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

PFC Sochi

V. Sarveli 84'

G. Melkadze 33'

11/13/2022

Premier League · Round 17Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki43%

×Draw26%

PFC Sochi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Khimki

1.44

PFC Sochi

1.19

Khimki creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 89 away

1.23

creates per match

1.08

1.30

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

PFC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

PFC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

69%

Khimki or PFC Sochi

74%

Draw or PFC Sochi

57%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

21%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

76%

Khimki 2+ goals

42%

Khimki 3+ goals

18%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

70%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

33%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

58%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimki scores more

43%

level

26%

PFC Sochi scores more

31%

Khimki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

T. Margasov

PFC Sochi · D

7.9

Match Events

23'

Aleksandr Rudenko

28'

K. Kravtsov← I. Miladinović

33'

G. Melkadze↳ Joãozinho

36'

Aleksandr Dolgov

44'

Sergey Terekhov

46'

R. Mirzov← K. Bozhenov

52'

Kirill Kravtsov

53'

Bryan Idowu

67'

V. Sarveli← N. Burmistrov

69'

M. Gbane← A. Rudenko

73'

Vanja Drkušić

80'

D. Dulaev← A. Guliev

80'

I. Sadygov← A. Dolgov

80'

A. Meshchaninov← K. Zaika

80'

L. Đorđević← G. Melkadze

84'

V. Sarveli

87'

A. Nikitin← I. Chezhia

90+3'

Danil Kazantsev

90+3'

Danil KazantsevCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiPFC

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots16

1Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots16

2On Target8

7Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box13

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

502Total Passes362

402Accurate Passes265

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4