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PFC Sochi vs Fakel Voronezh — Cup 2019

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
11/1/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PFC Sochi34%
×Draw25%
Fakel Voronezh41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.34
Fakel Voronezh
1.49

Fakel Voronezh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.42
Fakel Voronezh
0.73

allows per match

PFC Sochi
2.25
Fakel Voronezh
1.27

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
59%
PFC Sochi or Fakel Voronezh
75%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
66%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
15%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
74%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
39%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
15%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
77%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
44%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
46%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.42 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.73 + PFC Sochi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
34%
level
25%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
41%

Fakel Voronezh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: PFC Sochi 2–0 Fakel Voronezh

PFC Sochi beat Fakel Voronezh 2-0 in Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.