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Pevidem vs Trofense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pevidem
Pevidem
AET
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Trofense
Trofense
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundComplexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pevidem23%
×Draw24%
Trofense53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pevidem
1.00
Trofense
1.67

Trofense creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pevidem
0.33
Trofense
1.00

allows per match

Pevidem
2.33
Trofense
1.67

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par
Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Trofense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw
47%
Pevidem or Trofense
76%
Draw or Trofense
77%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+
8%
Trofense wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals
63%
Pevidem 2+ goals
26%
Pevidem 3+ goals
8%
Trofense 1+ goals
81%
Trofense 2+ goals
50%
Trofense 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)
30%
Trofense (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Trofense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.33 + Trofense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Trofense attack 1.00 + Pevidem defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pevidem scores more
23%
level
24%
Trofense scores more
53%

Trofense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trofense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pevidem vs Trofense

Trofense beat Pevidem 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC in São Jorge de Selho.