Pevidem 0–1 Oliveirense: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Pevidem

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oliveirense

2/27/2022

Liga 3 · Round 21Campo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pevidem22%

×Draw24%

Oliveirense55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PevidemExpected goals in this matchOliveirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.75

Pevidem

1.00

Oliveirense

1.75

Oliveirense creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

0.79

creates per match

1.79

1.71

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Pevidem

0.79

Oliveirense

1.79

allows per match

Pevidem

1.71

Oliveirense

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par

Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Oliveirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw

45%

Pevidem or Oliveirense

76%

Draw or Oliveirense

78%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+

8%

Oliveirense wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals

63%

Pevidem 2+ goals

26%

Pevidem 3+ goals

8%

Oliveirense 1+ goals

83%

Oliveirense 2+ goals

52%

Oliveirense 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)

28%

Oliveirense (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.79 + Oliveirense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Oliveirense attack 1.79 + Pevidem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pevidem scores more

22%

level

24%

Oliveirense scores more

55%

Oliveirense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oliveirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff