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Pevidem vs Maritimo — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pevidem
Pevidem
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maritimo
Maritimo
9/21/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundComplexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pevidem13%
×Draw19%
Maritimo68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pevidem
0.83
Maritimo
2.17

Maritimo creates 161% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pevidem
0.33
Maritimo
2.00

allows per match

Pevidem
2.33
Maritimo
1.33

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw
32%
Pevidem or Maritimo
81%
Draw or Maritimo
87%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+
4%
Maritimo wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals
56%
Pevidem 2+ goals
20%
Pevidem 3+ goals
5%
Maritimo 1+ goals
89%
Maritimo 2+ goals
64%
Maritimo 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)
16%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Maritimo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.33 + Maritimo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Maritimo attack 2.00 + Pevidem defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pevidem scores more
13%
level
19%
Maritimo scores more
68%

Maritimo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Maritimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pevidem vs Maritimo

Pevidem beat Maritimo 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC in São Jorge de Selho.