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Pevidem vs Guimaraes B — Liga 3 2021

Pevidem
Pevidem
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Guimaraes B
Guimaraes B
12/8/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 11Campo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pevidem30%
×Draw28%
Guimaraes B42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pevidem
1.06
Guimaraes B
1.31

Guimaraes B creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pevidem
0.79
Guimaraes B
0.91

allows per match

Pevidem
1.71
Guimaraes B
1.32

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par
Guimaraes B+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Guimaraes B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw
58%
Pevidem or Guimaraes B
72%
Draw or Guimaraes B
70%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+
12%
Guimaraes B wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals
65%
Pevidem 2+ goals
29%
Pevidem 3+ goals
9%
Guimaraes B 1+ goals
73%
Guimaraes B 2+ goals
38%
Guimaraes B 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)
42%
Guimaraes B (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Guimaraes B away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.79 + Guimaraes B defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Guimaraes B attack 0.91 + Pevidem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pevidem scores more
30%
level
28%
Guimaraes B scores more
42%

Guimaraes B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guimaraes B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pevidem vs Guimaraes B

Guimaraes B beat Pevidem 4-1 in Liga 3 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Gémeos Castro in Guimarães.