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Pevidem vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Pevidem
Pevidem
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
2/6/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 18Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pevidem23%
×Draw26%
Felgueiras 193251%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pevidem
0.95
Felgueiras 1932
1.55

Felgueiras 1932 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pevidem
0.79
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Pevidem
1.71
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw
49%
Pevidem or Felgueiras 1932
74%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
77%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+
8%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals
61%
Pevidem 2+ goals
25%
Pevidem 3+ goals
7%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
79%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
46%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)
31%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.79 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Pevidem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pevidem scores more
23%
level
26%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
51%

Felgueiras 1932 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Pevidem 0–2 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat Pevidem 2-0 in Liga 3 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.