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Pevidem vs Amarante — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Pevidem
Pevidem
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amarante
Amarante
4/21/2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 1Complexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pevidem14%
×Draw33%
Amarante53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pevidem
0.41
Amarante
1.09

Amarante creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pevidem
0.67
Amarante
0.86

allows per match

Pevidem
1.33
Amarante
0.14

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–124%
0–213%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw
47%
Pevidem or Amarante
67%
Draw or Amarante
86%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+
2%
Amarante wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals
34%
Pevidem 2+ goals
6%
Pevidem 3+ goals
1%
Amarante 1+ goals
66%
Amarante 2+ goals
30%
Amarante 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)
21%
Amarante (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Amarante away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.67 + Amarante defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.41

Amarante attack 0.86 + Pevidem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pevidem scores more
14%
level
33%
Amarante scores more
53%

Amarante at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Pevidem 0–0 Amarante

Pevidem and Amarante drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo do Pevidém SC in São Jorge de Selho.