Petržalka W 2–1 Ružomberok W: Result & Stats

Petržalka W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ružomberok W

10/19/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 11Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Petržalka W33%

×Draw21%

Ružomberok W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petržalka WExpected goals in this matchRužomberok W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.08

Petržalka W

1.75

Ružomberok W

2.08

Ružomberok W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 65 away

1.48

creates per match

1.85

2.31

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Petržalka W

1.48

Ružomberok W

1.85

allows per match

Petržalka W

2.31

Ružomberok W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petržalka W+0.00on par

Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka W ↓

Ružomberok W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Petržalka W or draw

54%

Petržalka W or Ružomberok W

79%

Draw or Ružomberok W

67%

Winning margin

Petržalka W wins by 2+

17%

Ružomberok W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Petržalka W 1+ goals

83%

Petržalka W 2+ goals

52%

Petržalka W 3+ goals

25%

Ružomberok W 1+ goals

87%

Ružomberok W 2+ goals

61%

Ružomberok W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Petržalka W (draw refunded)

42%

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka W attack 1.48 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Petržalka W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petržalka W scores more

33%

level

21%

Ružomberok W scores more

46%

Ružomberok W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ružomberok W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff