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Petržalka vs Vyškov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Petržalka40%
×Draw24%
Vyškov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.63
Vyškov
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.25
Vyškov
1.10

allows per match

Petržalka
2.00
Vyškov
2.00

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
63%
Petržalka or Vyškov
76%
Draw or Vyškov
60%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
20%
Vyškov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
80%
Petržalka 2+ goals
48%
Petržalka 3+ goals
22%
Vyškov 1+ goals
79%
Vyškov 2+ goals
46%
Vyškov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
52%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.25 + Vyškov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vyškov attack 1.10 + Petržalka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Petržalka scores more
40%
level
24%
Vyškov scores more
37%

Petržalka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petržalka vs Vyškov

Vyškov beat Petržalka 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.