Petržalka 0–0 Tatran Prešov: Result & Stats

Petržalka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tatran Prešov

5/4/2024

2. liga · Round 28Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Petržalka40%

×Draw25%

Tatran Prešov34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetržalkaExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.32

Petržalka

1.45

Tatran Prešov

1.32

Petržalka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 45 away

1.83

creates per match

1.47

1.18

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Petržalka

1.83

Tatran Prešov

1.47

allows per match

Petržalka

1.18

Tatran Prešov

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Tatran Prešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw

66%

Petržalka or Tatran Prešov

75%

Draw or Tatran Prešov

60%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+

19%

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals

77%

Petržalka 2+ goals

42%

Petržalka 3+ goals

18%

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

73%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

38%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)

54%

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.83 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tatran Prešov attack 1.47 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Petržalka scores more

40%

level

25%

Tatran Prešov scores more

34%

Petržalka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Petko

70'

S. Gladiš← F. Bobrovský

71'

N. Kelembet← H. Harba

82'

D. Pavúk← B. Gáll

85'

M. Riznič← L. Gašparovič

85'

D. Špehar← P. Danek

90'

A. Diao← J. Dolný

Petržalka

Tatran

1

18

4

3

22

17

8

23

▼

Bobrovský

10

▼

Dolný

9

▼

27

33

97

23

95

5

93

▼

Gašparovi

17

Nagy

8

Begala

11

▼

Danek

10

▼

Harba

25

Oršula

Manager: M. Kuruc

71'▲N. Kelembet←▼H. Harba

85'▲M. Riznič←▼L. Gašparovič

85'▲D. Špehar←▼P. Danek

Petržalka substitutes

20Kelembet7Riznič9Špehar2Kachnič14Minka27Liener78Urgela89Halo99Sokol

Manager: M. Ondrík

70'▲S. Gladiš←▼F. Bobrovský

82'▲D. Pavúk←▼B. Gáll

90'▲A. Diao←▼J. Dolný

Tatran Prešov substitutes

24Gladiš11Pavúk99Diao6Štefánik7Jendrek21Keresteš30Kopásek13Dlugoš