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Petržalka vs Spartak Myjava — 2. liga 2019

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
11/13/20222. liga2. liga · Round 17Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Petržalka46%
×Draw24%
Spartak Myjava30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.68
Spartak Myjava
1.30

Petržalka creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.82
Spartak Myjava
1.43

allows per match

Petržalka
1.18
Spartak Myjava
1.53

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
70%
Petržalka or Spartak Myjava
76%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
54%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
81%
Petržalka 2+ goals
50%
Petržalka 3+ goals
24%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
61%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Spartak Myjava attack 1.43 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petržalka scores more
46%
level
24%
Spartak Myjava scores more
30%

Petržalka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petržalka vs Spartak Myjava

Petržalka and Spartak Myjava drew 1-1 in 2. liga on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.