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Petržalka vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 2. liga 2019

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
11/9/20242. liga2. liga · Round 14Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Petržalka48%
×Draw24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.65
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17

Petržalka creates 41% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.82
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17

allows per match

Petržalka
1.18
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
73%
Petržalka or Lokomotíva Zvolen
76%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
52%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
81%
Petržalka 2+ goals
49%
Petržalka 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
69%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
33%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
64%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Petržalka scores more
48%
level
24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
27%

Petržalka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petržalka vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Petržalka beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 2-0 in 2. liga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.